Patrick Mahomes- 2021 #1 Dynasty QB

#15 Patrick Mahomes, KC

bio:

Patrick Mahomes is IDPE’s #1 dynasty QB for 2021. He was drafted by Kansas City in the 1st round (#10 overall) out of Texas Tech in the 2017 draft. He was first-team All-Pro and MVP in 2018, league champion (and championship MVP) in 2019, and second-team All-Pro in 2020.

attributes:

A clutch 5th-year quarterback, he is probably the most talented all-around quarterback the league has ever seen. The only real knock against him is that he scored poorly on the Wonderlic. Mahomes has a good College Prospect Score (CPS).

Age*	Height	Weight	40	Wonderlic	College QBR	College YPA	CPS
26.0	6’3″	230	4.80	24	82.5	8.5	4.7

*Age of the player on Week 1 of 2021 Season

player grades:

Mahomes was graded as the #4 quarterback out of 38 qualified players in 2020, per PFF.com. He is an elite passer and continues to improve running the ball.

Year	Overall	Passing	Rushing
2017	72.6	76.3	48.7
2018	93.2	92.8	66.4
2019	84.1	82.3	66.0
2020	91.4	90.4	72.0

injury:

He missed two games in 2019 due to a Patella dislocation.

passing stats:

Mahomes had 588 pass attempts (#5), 4740 pass yards (#2), and 38 pass touchdowns (#4) in 2020. He only threw six interceptions and was sacked 22 times.

Year	Att	Yards	TD	INT	SACK	TPP*	Games	PP/G**	A4GM***
2018	580	5097	50	12	26	380	16	23.7	380
2019	484	4031	26	5	17	255	14	18.2	292
2020	588	4740	38	6	22	330	15	22.0	352

*TPP is Total Passing Points
**PP/G is Passing Points per Game
***A4GM is Adjusted for Games Missed
Note: Fantasy Points based on the following:
Pass Yard (0.04), Pass TD (4), INT (-2)

He has averaged 4623 pass yards over the last three years. Therefore, he has an elite floor in fantasy. He also averaged 38 pass touchdowns to 8 interceptions and 22 sacks in the same stretch. Therefore, he has an elite ceiling in fantasy.

rushing stats:

He has averaged 263 rush yards and 2 touchdowns over the last three years. Mahomes is a talented runner, but he does not run as often as he could; he tends to use his athleticism to extend plays to let deep routes develop. He does score enough points as a runner to give him a slight boost in fantasy.

Year	Rush	Yards	TD	TRP*	Games	RP/G**	A4GM***
2018	60	272	2	39	16	2.5	39
2019	43	218	2	34	14	2.4	39
2020	62	308	2	43	15	2.9	46

*TRP is Total Rushing Points
**RP/G is Rushing Points per Ga
***A4GM is Adjusted for Games Missed
Note: Fantasy Points based on the following:
Rush Yard (0.1), Rush TD (6)

offensive line:

Kansas City had the #11 offensive line in the league in 2020, per PFF. They are projected to have 1 out of 5 of last year’s starters returning in 2021.

Orland Brown Jr. was graded as the #25 Tackle in the league out of 79 qualifiers last season; strong as a pass (77.8) and run (73.5) blocker, per PFF.com. He was traded from Baltimore, where he played RT, but he will replace Eric Fisher (#16 out of 79 qualifiers) at Left Tackle in 2021. Brown is a slight downgrade and changing positions, but he is young, healthy, and talented.

Joe Thuney was graded as the #10 Guard in the league out of 80 qualifiers last season; strong as a pass (73.1) and run (70.2) blocker, per PFF.com. He was signed in free agency from New England and will replace Nick Allegretti (#31 out of 80 qualifiers) at Left Guard. Thuney is a major upgrade over Allegretti.

Austin Blythe was graded as the #9 Center in the league out of 36 qualifiers last season; poor as a pass blocker (52.8) but strong as a run blocker (74.2), per PFF.com. He was signed in free agency from Los Angeles and will replace Austin Reiter (#12 out of 36 qualifiers) at Center. Blythe is a slight upgrade to Reiter; he is a better run blocker but a downgrade as a pass blocker.

Laurent Duvernay-Tardif was graded as the #50 Guard in the league out of 83 qualifiers in 2019 (he opted out in 2020); strong as a pass blocker (70.5) but poor as a run blocker (48.5), per PFF.com. He will replace Andrew Wylie (#67 out of 80 qualifiers) at Right Guard in 2021. LDT should be an upgrade at RG, especially in the passing game. Kyle Long will compete with LDT to start in 2021, but he hasn’t played a full season since 2015, so he’s not guaranteed to make an impact.

The offensive line should take a step forward in 2021 and has solid depth. I currently have KC ranked as the #9 overall line in the league for 2021. PFF has the KC offensive line as #7 in its 2021 offensive line rankings.

2021 OLINE	OVERALL*	LT**	LG**	C**	RG**	RT
Projected Starter	–	Orlando Brown Jr.	Joe Thuney	Austin Blythe	Laurent Duvernay-Tardif	Mike Remmers
PFF Overall Grade	70	78	74	70	57	71
PFF Pass Grade	69	78	73	53	71	70
PFF Run Grade	67	74	70	74	49	69

*OVERALL is the average grade based on the available PFF grades.
** New starter at this position.

receivers:

Four of Mahome’s top five receivers returned in 2021 after Sammy Watkins signed with Baltimore in free agency. KC drafted WR Cornell Powell at the end of the 5th round; he is not a good prospect and shouldn’t have much of a role in 2021. I would have preferred Seth Williams out of Auburn, who was drafted by the Broncos (of course..) in the 6th round.

Player	PFF RANK*	CPS	Targets	Rec	Yards	TD	GP
Travis Kelce	#1 (TE)	0.0	145	105	1416	11	15
Tyreek Hill	#14 (WR)	-1.7	135	87	1276	15	15
Mecole Hardman	#72 (WR)	1.5	62	41	560	4	16
Demarcus Robinson	#104 (WR)	0.4	59	45	466	3	16
Sammy Watkins	#87 (WR)	9.4	55	37	421	2	10
Cornell Powell**	–	-4.5	–	–	–	–	–

*Pro Football Focus 2020 overall grades based on position played.
**Did not play for the team in 2020.

strength of schedule:

KC has the 14th easiest schedule for quarterbacks in 2021, per PFF. The bye week is Week 12, and the most difficult matchups are Weeks 9 and 13. Chicago, Carolina, Houston, Denver, and NYJ quarterbacks currently look like solid bye week options.

contract:

Mahomes signed a ten-year, $450 mil contract extension in 2020. He will be an unrestricted free agent in 2032 (Age 37).

summary:

Patrick Mahomes is the #1 QB in 2021 and dynasty. I don’t think I need to explain why.