Alvin Kamara – 2021 #4 Dynasty Running Back

#41 Alvin Kamara, NO

bio:

Alvin Kamara is IDPE’s #4 dynasty RB in 2021. Drafted by New Orleans in the 3rd round (#67 overall) out of Tennessee in the 2017 draft. He was the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2017 and a two-time second-team All-Pro. He holds the record for most single-game rushing touchdowns (tied with Ernie Nevers with 6 TDs).

attributes:

A smart, versatile 5th-year running back, he is a strong receiver and has great balance, vision, and explosion. He was awarded the #4 Elusiveness Rating for RB in 2020, per PFF.com.

He has an average BMI and good athleticism, though he lacks long speed. Kamara has an above-average College Prospect Score (CPS); his poor college production had the largest negative impact on his CPS.

player grades:

Kamara graded out as the #7 running back out of 70 qualified players in 2020, per PFF.com. He graded out as elite in his rookie year, which is rare. He has been solid ever since, though he did have a down year in 2019.

Year	Overall	Rushing	Receiving
2017	90.5	86.1	91.2
2018	82.9	77.3	87.6
2019	70.0	68.2	69.2
2020	82.2	78.2	90.1

injury:

He missed 4 games in 2019 due to a high ankle and MCL sprain.

stats:

Kamara had 187 rush attempts (tied for #15), 932 rushing yards (#14), and 16 rushing touchdowns (tied #2) in 2020. He also had a good year as a receiver with 83 receptions (#19 out of all receivers), 756 yards (#44 out of all receivers), and 5 receiving touchdowns (tied #44 out of all receivers).

He has averaged over 1500 yards (rushing and receiving) over the last three years. Therefore, he has a high floor in fantasy. He also averaged 82 receptions and 15 total touchdowns over the same period. He has had at least 81 catches every year he has been in the league. Therefore, he has an elite ceiling in fantasy.

misc. stats:

He is involved on special teams in certain scenarios but not enough to impact his fantasy output in leagues that award special teams points. Players used in the return game tend to have big-play potential.

Year	PRY	PRTD	KRY	KRTD
2018	82	0	126	0
2019	30	0	0	0
2020	0	0	44	0

strength of schedule:

New Orleans has the 15th easiest schedule for RB in 2021, per PFF. The bye week is Week 6, and the most difficult matchups are Weeks 8 and 15. Indianapolis and Miami RBs currently look like solid options if you want to stream based on RB matchup those weeks.

contract:

Kamara signed a five-year, $75 mil contract extension with New Orleans in 2020. New Orleans has a potential out in 2024. He has no guaranteed money in 2025 with a $25 mil cap hit, so it is unlikely he will play out his contract. If he does play out his contract, he will be an unrestricted free agent in 2026 (31 years old).

summary:

Alvin Kamara is an elite running back in the prime of his career. Most people would be surprised that he has never had 1000 yards rushing in a season. He makes up for the lack of rush yards as an elite pass-catcher.

The main concern is the retirement of Drew Brees. In the four games that Taysom Hill started last year, Kamara averaged 13.6 fantasy PPG. He averaged 25.5 fantasy PPG when Drew Brees started. Running quarterbacks are usually never good for running backs that catch a lot of passes. Kamara owners should probably be routing for Jameis Winston to win the starting job.

Expect Kamara to compete for the overall #1 RB in 2021 if Jameis Winston is the starter. If Taysom Hill starts for New Orleans, expect Kamara to compete for a Top 5 finish in 2021.

Kamara is starting to get up there in age for a running back (27 years old in Week 1, 2022). With the talented 2020 draft class likely to take a step forward this year, he may slip outside the Top 5 in dynasty next year if he doesn’t post elite numbers in 2021.