Lamar Jackson- 2021 #2 Dynasty QB
#8 Lamar Jackson, BAL
bio:
Lamar Jackson is IDPE’s #2 dynasty QB for 2021. He was drafted by Baltimore in the 1st round (#32 overall) out of Louisville in the 2018 draft. He was a unanimous All-American and Heismann Trophy winner in 2016, first-team All-Pro in 2019 after leading the league in passing touchdowns, and won the league MVP in 2019.
attributes:
A playmaking, dual-threat 4th-year quarterback, he is one of the best running quarterbacks in league history but doesn’t have a particularly strong arm and struggles with accuracy at times. He is a bit undersized and scored very poorly on the Wonderlic. Jackson has a good College Prospect Score (CPS).
| Age* | Height | Weight | 40 | Wonderlic | College QBR | College YPA | CPS |
| 24.7 | 6’2″ | 216 | 4.34** | 13 | 85.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 |
**Time was not official.
player grades:
Jackson was graded as the #16 quarterback out of 38 qualified players in 2020, per PFF.com. He broke out in a big way in his second year but took a step back as a runner and passer in 2020.
| Year | Overall | Passing | Rushing |
| 2018 | 58.6 | 59.3 | 58.1 |
| 2019 | 91.1 | 85.3 | 90.5 |
| 2020 | 81.5 | 76.9 | 79.3 |
injury:
He has not missed a game due to injury in his young career.
passing stats:
Jackson had 376 pass attempts (#), 2757 pass yards (#), and 26 pass touchdowns (tied for #) in 2020. He only threw nine interceptions and was sacked 29 times.
| Year | Att | Yards | TD | INT | SACK | TPP* | Games | PP/G** | A4GM*** |
| 2018 | 170 | 1201 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 66 | 7 | 9.4 | 151 |
| 2019 | 401 | 3127 | 36 | 6 | 23 | 257 | 15 | 17.1 | 274 |
| 2020 | 376 | 2757 | 26 | 9 | 29 | 196 | 15 | 13.1 | 209 |
**PP/G is Passing Points per Game
***A4GM is Adjusted for Games Missed
Note: Fantasy Points based on the following:
Pass Yard (0.04), Pass TD (4), INT (-2)
He has averaged 2942 pass yards over the last two years as a full-time starter. Therefore, he has a mediocre floor as a passer in fantasy. He also averaged 31 pass touchdowns to 8 interceptions and 36 sacks in the same stretch. Therefore, he has good upside as a passer in fantasy.
rushing stats:
He has averaged 1106 rush yards and 7 touchdowns over the last two years as a full-time starter. Jackson is an elite runner, but his rushing points per game have declined every year. This is a concern because he is an average passer.
| Year | Rush | Yards | TD | TRP* | Games | RP/G** | A4GM*** |
| 2018 | 147 | 695 | 5 | 100 | 7 | 14.2 | 227 |
| 2019 | 176 | 1206 | 7 | 163 | 15 | 10.8 | 173 |
| 2020 | 159 | 1005 | 7 | 143 | 15 | 9.5 | 152 |
**RP/G is Rushing Points per Game
***A4GM is Adjusted for Games Missed
Note: Fantasy Points based on the following:
Rush Yard (0.1), Rush TD (6)
offensive line:
Baltimore had the #16 offensive line in the league in 2020. They are projected to have 3 out of 5 of last year’s starters returning in 2021, with Ronnie Stanley expected to be fully healthy after he missed half of 2020 due to injury.
Ben Powers was graded as the #54 Guard in the league out of 80 qualifiers last season, earning decent marks in the pass (66.8) but struggled in the run (57.5) game, per PFF.com. To replace Powers at Right Guard, Baltimore signed Kevin Zeitler (#32 out of 80 Guards), who is a slight improvement as both a pass and run blocker.
Orland Brown Jr. was graded as the #25 Tackle in the league out of 79 qualifiers last season; strong as a pass (77.8) and run (73.5) blocker, per PFF.com. Alejandro Villanueva will replace Orlando Brown Jr. at Right Tackle after he was traded to Kansas City. Villanueva is a capable replacement as a pass blocker but struggled in the run game in 2020.
The offensive line should take a step forward in 2021, especially if Ronnie Stanley plays as well as he did in 2019, though they may struggle a bit in the running game. I currently have Baltimore ranked as the #16 overall line in the league for 2021. However, PFF has them ranked as #12 in its 2021 offensive line rankings.
| 2021 OLINE | OVERALL* | LT | LG | C | RG** | RT** |
| Projected Starter | – | Ronnie Stanley | Bradley Bozeman | Patrick Mekari | Kevin Zeitler | Alejandro Villanueva |
| PFF Overall Grade | 69 | 80 | 64 | 62 | 66 | 75 |
| PFF Pass Grade | 73 | 91 | 62 | 64 | 69 | 78 |
| PFF Run Grade | 64 | 69 | 63 | 64 | 63 | 61 |
** New starter at this position.
receivers:
Four of Jackson’s top five receivers are returning in 2021 after Willie Snead signed with Las Vegas in free agency. Houston signed WR Sammy Watkins from Kansas City and drafted WR Rashod Bateman in the 1st round. Watkins will likely step in as the #1 WR in Baltimore, leaving Marquise Brown as the #2. Watkins is a high-end talent but has struggled to stay on the field. Rookie Rashod Bateman will likely start in the slot and will not make much noise in 2021 unless Watkins gets hurt.
| Player | PFF RANK* | CPS | Targets | Rec | Yards | TD | GP |
| Marquise Brown | #43 (WR) | 2.9 | 100 | 58 | 769 | 8 | 16 |
| Mark Andrews | #10 (TE) | 5.2 | 88 | 58 | 701 | 7 | 14 |
| Willie Snead | #66 (WR) | – | 48 | 33 | 432 | 3 | 13 |
| Miles Boykin | #100 (WR) | 0.6 | 33 | 19 | 266 | 4 | 16 |
| Devin Duvernay | #106 (WR) | -0.4 | 26 | 20 | 201 | 0 | 16 |
| Sammy Watkins** | #87 (WR) | 9.4 | 55 | 37 | 421 | 2 | 10 |
| Rashod Bateman** | – | 4.2 | – | – | – | – | – |
**Did not play for the team in 2020.
strength of schedule:
Houston has the 10th most difficult schedule for quarterbacks in 2021, per PFF. The bye week is Week 8, and the most difficult matchups are Weeks 4, 5, 9, and 17. Jalen Hurts (PHI) and Carson Wentz (IND) currently look like solid options if you want to stream based on QB matchup those weeks.
contract:
Jackson is playing on his rookie contract. Baltimore has exercised the 5th year option, making him an unrestricted free agent in 2023 (Age 26). Expect him to be franchise-tagged in 2023 if a long-term contract is not reached.
summary:
Lamar Jackson is an elite, young quarterback. Baltimore has a moderately difficult schedule for QBs but has improved his weapons and patched up the offensive line in 2021. The biggest concern for Jackson is how much he will run. There is a noticeable intent to transform him into a passing quarterback, which would likely negatively impact his fantasy value.
Expect him to compete for the #1 overall QB in 2021 and remain a Top 5 QB in dynasty for years to come.
