Deshaun Watson- 2021 #3 Dynasty QB
#4 Deshaun Watson, HOU?
bio:
Deshaun Watson is IDPE’s #3 dynasty QB for 2021. He was drafted by Houston in the 1st round (#12 overall) out of Clemson in the 2017 draft. He was a two-time Heisman Trophy finalist and runner-up in 2016, consensus All-American in 2015, and passing yards leader in 2020.
attributes:
A clutch 5th-year quarterback, he uses his athleticism to extend plays and has one of the best deep balls in the league. He is a bit undersized and scored poorly on the Wonderlic. Watson has a good College Prospect Score (CPS).
| Age* | Height | Weight | 40 | Wonderlic | College QBR | College YPA | CPS |
| 26.0 | 6’2″ | 221 | 4.66 | 20 | 85.0 | 8.1 | 5.2 |
player grades:
Watson was graded as the #3 quarterback out of 38 qualified players in 2020, per PFF.com. He has improved every year of his career and was graded as elite in 2020.
| Year | Overall | Passing | Rushing |
| 2017 | 68.1 | 64.1 | 74.9 |
| 2018 | 80.9 | 81.1 | 70.2 |
| 2019 | 82.7 | 76.5 | 79.3 |
| 2020 | 92.5 | 91.2 | 81.4 |
injury:
He has not missed a game due to injury since 2017.
passing stats:
Watson had 544 pass attempts (#10), 4823 pass yards (#1), and 33 pass touchdowns (tied for #7) in 2020. He only threw seven interceptions and was sacked 49 times.
| Year | Att | Yards | TD | INT | SACK | TPP* | Games | PP/G** | A4GM*** |
| 2018 | 505 | 4165 | 26 | 9 | 62 | 253 | 16 | 15.8 | 253 |
| 2019 | 495 | 3852 | 26 | 12 | 44 | 234 | 15 | 15.6 | 250 |
| 2020 | 544 | 4823 | 33 | 7 | 49 | 311 | 16 | 19.4 | 311 |
**PP/G is Passing Points per Game
***A4GM is Adjusted for Games Missed
Note: Fantasy Points based on the following:
Pass Yard (0.04), Pass TD (4), INT (-2)
He has averaged 4280 pass yards over the last three years. Therefore, he has a high floor in fantasy. He also averaged 28 pass touchdowns to 9 interceptions and 52 sacks in the same stretch. Therefore, he has a high ceiling in fantasy.
rushing stats:
He has averaged 469 rush yards and 5 touchdowns over the last three years. Watson is a talented runner, but he does not run as often as he could; he tends to use his athleticism to extend plays to let deep routes develop. He does run enough to give himself a boost in fantasy.
| Year | Rush | Yards | TD | TRP* | Games | RP/G** | A4GM*** |
| 2018 | 99 | 551 | 5 | 85 | 16 | 5.3 | 85 |
| 2019 | 82 | 413 | 7 | 83 | 15 | 5.2 | 89 |
| 2020 | 90 | 444 | 3 | 62 | 16 | 3.9 | 62 |
**RP/G is Rushing Points per Game
***A4GM is Adjusted for Games Missed
Note: Fantasy Points based on the following:
Rush Yard (0.1), Rush TD (6)
offensive line:
Houston had the #23 offensive line in the league in 2020. They are projected to have 3 out of 5 of last year’s starters returning in 2021.
Nick Martin signed with Las Vegas in free agency. He graded out as the #29 Center in the league out of 36 qualifiers last season, earning solid marks in the pass (74.0) but struggled in the run (47.7) game, per PFF.com. To replace Martin, Houston signed Justin Britt, who did not play last year but struggled in 2019.
Marcus Cannon will replace Tytus Howard at Right Tackle. Howard was graded as the #61 Tackle in the league out of 79 qualifiers last season; he was mediocre as both a pass (65.4) and run (62.7) blocker, per PFF.com. To replace Howard, Houston signed Cannon, who did not play last year, but his 2019 grade was only slightly higher than Howard.
The offensive line should take a step forward in 2021 if Justin Britt and Marcus Cannon can play near the high levels they have played at in the past. I currently have Houston ranked as the #20 overall line in the league for 2021, which is in line with PFF 2021 offensive line rankings.
| 2021 OLINE | OVERALL* | LT | LG | C | RG | RT |
| Projected Starter | – | Laremy Tunsil | Max Scharping | Justin Britt | Tytus Howard | Marcus Cannon |
| PFF Overall Grade | 64 | 75 | 52 | 62 | 62 | 68 |
| PFF Pass Grade | 65 | 86 | 61 | 46 | 65 | 68 |
| PFF Run Grade | 61 | 62 | 49 | 66 | 63 | 64 |
receivers:
Four of Watson’s top five receivers are returning in 2021. Houston signed WR Donte Moncrief from New England and drafted WR Nico Collins in the 3rd round. Moncrief will likely replace Fuller, who left in free agency, early in the year before Nico Collins eventually takes over. Moncrief was a solid prospect in 2014 but never settled in as a consistent producer. Nico Collins is not likely to make much noise in 2021.
| Player | PFF RANK* | CPS | Targets | Rec | Yards | TD | GP |
| Brandin Cooks | #19 (WR) | 7.4 | 119 | 81 | 1150 | 6 | 15 |
| Will Fuller | #9 (WR) | 6.9 | 75 | 53 | 879 | 8 | 11 |
| Jordan Akins | #14 (TE) | -4.5 | 49 | 37 | 403 | 1 | 13 |
| Randall Cobb | #54 (WR) | – | 48 | 38 | 441 | 3 | 10 |
| David Johnson | #55 (RB) | 4.7 | 46 | 33 | 314 | 2 | 12 |
| Donte Moncrief** | – | 8.4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 6 |
| Nico Collins** | – | 2.4 | – | – | – | – | – |
**Did not play for the team in 2020.
strength of schedule:
Houston has the 7th easiest schedule for quarterbacks in 2021, per PFF. The bye week is Week 10, and the most difficult matchups are Weeks 6, 8, 13, and 17. Carson Wentz (IND), Drew Lock (DEN), and Kirk Cousins (MIN) currently look like solid options if you want to stream based on QB matchup those weeks.
contract:
Watson signed a four-year, $156 mil contract extension in 2020. Houston has a potential out in 2024. If he plays out his current contract, he will be an unrestricted free agent in 2026 (age 31).
summary:
Houston has one of the easiest schedules for QBs, decent weapons, and should have an improved offensive line in 2021. The biggest question mark is where Watson will play in 2021 or if he will play at all due to pending lawsuits.
It’s risky at this point, but I recommend Watson’s dynasty owners to hold onto him. It’s possible he won’t play at all in 2021, but he is young and elite and will likely play in 2022 for a better team. If you trade him now, you will only get pennies on the dollar.
Stash Watson and maybe grab Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold, Teddy Bridgewater/Drew Lock as cheap one-year alternatives with relatively easy schedules.
