Kyler Murray – 2021 #4 Dynasty QB
#1 Kyler Murray, ARI
bio:
Kyler Murray is IDPE’s #4 dynasty QB for 2021. Drafted by Arizona in the 1st round (#1 overall) out of Oklahoma in the 2019 draft. Two-time All-American, Heismann Trophy winner in 2018, and Rookie of the Year in 2019.
attributes:
A dual-threat 3rd-year quarterback, he is quick with great vision in the open field. He is teeny tiny, and his tape shows good athleticism, though he skipped most of the combine events for athleticism. He graded poorly on the Wonderlic. Murray has a high College Prospect Score (CPS).
| Age* | Height | Weight | 40 | Wonderlic | College QBR | College YPA | CPS |
| 24.1 | 5’10” | 207 | – | 20 | 96.0 | 11.6 | 10.7 |
player grades:
Murray was graded as the #13 quarterback out of 38 qualified players in 2020, per PFF.com. He took a big step forward in his second season and seems primed to take another step forward in 2021.
| Year | Overall | Passing | Rushing |
| 2019 | 64.2 | 61.1 | 69.6 |
| 2020 | 82.8 | 77.2 | 86.5 |
injury:
He has not missed a game due to injury in his young career.
passing stats:
Murray had 558 pass attempts (#7), 3971 pass yards (#13), and 26 pass touchdowns (tied for #12) in 2020. He threw 12 interceptions and was sacked 27 times.
| Year | Att | Yards | TD | INT | SACK | TPP* | Games | PP/G** |
| 2019 | 542 | 3722 | 20 | 12 | 48 | 205 | 16 | 12.8 |
| 2020 | 558 | 3971 | 26 | 12 | 27 | 239 | 16 | 14.9 |
**PP/G is Passing Points per Game
Note: Fantasy Points based on the following:
Pass Yard (0.04), Pass TD (4), INT (-2)
He has averaged 3847 pass yards in his first two years. Therefore, he has a decent floor as a passer in fantasy. He also averaged 23 pass touchdowns to 12 interceptions and 38 sacks in the same stretch. Therefore, he has a decent ceiling as a passer in fantasy.
He improved his passing stats slightly in his second year. Murray is likely to take another step forward in 2021 due to some of the offseason moves made by Arizona to improve the weapons around him.
rushing stats:
He has averaged 682 rush yards and 7.5 touchdowns in his first two years. He nearly doubled his fantasy rushing points per game in 2020. This gives him a high ceiling in fantasy.
| Year | Rush | Yards | TD | TRP* | Games | RP/G** |
| 2019 | 93 | 544 | 4 | 78 | 16 | 4.9 |
| 2020 | 133 | 819 | 11 | 148 | 16 | 9.2 |
**RP/G is Rushing Points per Game
Note: Fantasy Points based on the following:
Rush Yard (0.1), Rush TD (6)
offensive line:
Arizona had the #12 offensive line in the league in 2020. They are projected to have 4 out of 5 of last year’s starters returning in 2021.
Justin Murray replaced J.R. Sweezy at Right Guard during the 2020 season and is expected to remain the starter in 2021. Murray was graded as the #56 Guard out of 80 qualified players in 2020. He is an upgrade in pass protection but needs to improve his run blocking.
Rodney Hudson was traded to Arizona in 2021. He graded out as the #8 Center in the league last season, earning solid marks in the pass (70.0) and run (72.7) game, per PFF.com.
The offensive line should take a step forward in 2021, particularly in pass protection. I currently have them ranked as the #11 overall line in the league for 2021, which is in line with PFF 2021 offensive line rankings.
| 2021 OLINE | OVERALL* | LT | LG | C | RG | RT |
| Projected Starter | – | D.J. Humphries | Justin Pugh | Rodney Hudson | Justin Murray | Kelvin Beachum |
| PFF Overall Grade | 70 | 88 | 65 | 74 | 57 | 69 |
| PFF Pass Grade | 75 | 80 | 74 | 70 | 74 | 77 |
| PFF Run Grade | 66 | 91 | 63 | 73 | 46 | 59 |
receivers:
Three of Murray’s top five receivers are returning in 2021. Dan Arnold signed with Carolina in the offseason. Larry Fitzgerald remains a free agent. Arizona signed aging A.J. Green and drafted WR Rondale Moore in the 2nd round.
Green will likely replace Fitzgerald in the lineup, who has not yet resigned with Arizona, though it’s still a possibility. Green had the worst season of his career in 2020 but managed to stay healthy and was one of the league leaders for uncatchable passes. He may have a decent season if he has a better connection with Kyler than with Joe Burrow.
Rondale Moore is not likely to make much noise in 2021, though he is a solid prospect. He has a small frame, but he is fast. He will likely have to compete for slot snaps with Andy Isabella and contribute as a returner on special teams.
Maxx Williams played for Arizona in 2020 and should replace Dan Arnold. Williams was a solid prospect in 2015 but has yet to make much noise as a pro. Arizona does not feature the Tight End position in the passing game, so this should not significantly impact Murray.
| Player | PFF RANK* | CPS | Targets | Rec | Yards | TD | GP |
| DeAndre Hopkins | #7 (WR) | 5.5 | 160 | 115 | 1407 | 6 | 16 |
| Christian Kirk | #98 (RB) | 4.7 | 79 | 48 | 621 | 6 | 14 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | #108 (WR) | – | 72 | 54 | 409 | 1 | 13 |
| Chase Edmonds | #41 (RB) | -2.0 | 67 | 53 | 402 | 4 | 16 |
| Dan Arnold | #43 (TE) | – | 45 | 31 | 438 | 4 | 16 |
| A.J. Green** | #78 (WR) | 5.0 | 104 | 47 | 523 | 2 | 16 |
| Rondale Moore** | – | 4.4 | – | – | – | – | – |
| Maxx Williams | #29 (TE) | 7.2 | 10 | 8 | 102 | 1 | 9 |
**Did not play for the team in 2020.
strength of schedule:
Arizona has the 16th most difficult schedule for quarterbacks in 2021, per PFF. The bye week is Week 12, and the most difficult matchups are Weeks 2, 4, 5, 9, 14. Jameis Winston/Taysom Hill (NO), Justin Herbert (LAC), and Derek Carr (LV) currently look like decent options if you want to stream based on QB matchup those weeks.
contract:
Murray is playing on his rookie contract. Arizona has a 5th-year option available. He will be an unrestricted free agent in 2024 (age 27).
summary:
Kyler Murray is an ascending quarterback. Arizona does not have a particularly challenging schedule for QBs in 2021 and has improved the offensive line and Murray’s weapons. Expect him to compete for a Top 5 finish in 2021 and dynasty.
