Aaron Rodgers – 2021 #5 Dynasty QB
#12 Aaron Rodgers, GB?
bio:
Aaron Rodgers is IDPE’s #5 dynasty QB for 2021. Drafted by Green Bay in the 1st round (#24 overall) out of California in the 2005 draft. Four-time All-Pro and three-time MVP, he was named to the 2010s All-Decade Team and has won one championship (and named MVP).
attributes:
A savvy, accurate 17th-year quarterback, he still has one of the strongest arms in the NFL. He has good size and athleticism, though he has below-average height. Rodgers has an above-average College Prospect Score (CPS), but some data points in my model are not available.
| Age* | Height | Weight | 40 | Wonderlic | College QBR | College YPA | CPS |
| 37.8 | 6’2″ | 223 | 4.71 | 39 | 75.1 | 8.1 | 2.6 |
player grades:
Rodgers was graded out as the #1 quarterback out of 38 qualified players in 2020, per PFF.com. He has been a Top 12 QB each year since 2008.
| Year | Overall | Passing | Rushing |
| 2016 | 90.4 | 89.5 | 72.2 |
| 2017 | 79.2 | 74.9 | 86.4 |
| 2018 | 89.0 | 86.3 | 77.0 |
| 2019 | 81.4 | 80.1 | 69.1 |
| 2020 | 94.5 | 94.3 | 54.6 |
injury:
He has not missed a game due to injury since 2017.
passing stats:
Rodgers had 526 pass attempts (#13), 4299 pass yards (#7), and 48 pass touchdowns (#1) in 2020. He only threw five interceptions and was sacked 20 times.
| Year | Att | Yards | TD | INT | SACK | TPP* | Games | PP/G** |
| 2018 | 597 | 4442 | 25 | 2 | 49 | 274 | 16 | 17.1 |
| 2019 | 569 | 4002 | 26 | 4 | 36 | 256 | 16 | 16.0 |
| 2020 | 526 | 4299 | 48 | 5 | 20 | 354 | 16 | 22.1 |
**PP/G is Passing Points per Game
Note: Fantasy Points based on the following:
Pass Yard (0.04), Pass TD (4), INT (-2)
He has averaged 4248 pass yards over the last three years. Therefore, he has a high floor in fantasy. He also averaged 33 pass touchdowns to 4 interceptions and 35 sacks in the same stretch. Therefore, he has a high ceiling in fantasy with elite upside.
His 2020 fantasy results seem like an outlier at first glance, and it is to some degree. However, the offense in 2018 was outdated and required Rodgers to perform miracles to get wins. Mike McCarthy ended up getting canned before the season was even over. In 2019, Rodgers was learning a new offense from a new coaching staff, so he had a solid year with this in mind. He then had a career year in the second year of a modern offense, resulting in league MVP honors.
rushing stats:
He has averaged 200 rush yards and 2 touchdowns over the last three years. Certainly not eye-popping rushing numbers, but he does run the ball a couple of times a game which gives him a little boost in fantasy.
| Year | Rush | Yards | TD | TRP* | Games | RP/G** |
| 2018 | 43 | 269 | 2 | 39 | 16 | 2.4 |
| 2019 | 46 | 183 | 1 | 24 | 16 | 1.5 |
| 2020 | 38 | 149 | 3 | 33 | 16 | 2.1 |
**RP/G is Rushing Points per Game
Note: Fantasy Points based on the following:
Rush Yard (0.1), Rush TD (6)
offensive line:
Green Bay had the #2 offensive line in the league in 2020. They are projected to have 4 out of 5 of last year’s starters back, though Bakhtiari may not be ready to play immediately after tearing his ACL late last season.
Corey Linsley signed with Los Angeles in free agency, which is a big loss for Green Bay. He graded out as the #1 Center in the league last season, earning high marks in the pass (82.7) and run (83.4) game, per PFF.com. To replace Linsley, Green Bay drafted Josh Myers out of Ohio State in the second round, who graded out as the #71 out of 215 Centers in college last year.
The offensive line should take a step back in 2021, especially early in the season, while Bakhtiari gets healthy and Josh Myers gets acclimated. I currently have them ranked as the #6 overall line in the league for 2021, assuming Bakhtiari fully recovers and Josh Myers provides average protection. PFF has them ranked #15 in their 2021 offensive line rankings.
| 2021 OLINE | OVERALL* | LT | LG | C | RG | RT |
| Projected Starter | – | David Bakhtiari | Elgton Jenkins | Josh Myers | Lucas Patrick | Billy Turner |
| PFF Overall Grade | 74 | 92 | 67 | – | 67 | 71 |
| PFF Pass Grade | 75 | 92 | 75 | – | 63 | 70 |
| PFF Run Grade | 70 | 87 | 62 | – | 66 | 64 |
receivers:
Rodgers’s top five receivers are returning in 2021. Green Bay will get WR Devin Funchess back (2020 opt-out) and drafted WR Amari Rodgers in the 3rd round. Funchess will likely replace MVS in the lineup, who did not live up to expectations last year despite making some big plays. Funchess is a giant target and an under-the-radar player worth a look in the later rounds of drafts due to TD upside alone. Amari Rodgers is not likely to make much noise in 2021.
| Player | PFF RANK* | CPS | Targets | Rec | Yards | TD | GP |
| Davante Adams | #1 (WR) | 4.7 | 149 | 115 | 1374 | 18 | 14 |
| Aaron Jones | #23 (RB) | 3.5 | 63 | 47 | 355 | 2 | 14 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | #105 (WR) | -2.3 | 63 | 33 | 690 | 6 | 16 |
| Robert Tonyan | #28 (TE) | 0.0 | 59 | 52 | 586 | 11 | 16 |
| Allen Lazard | #50 (WR) | 0.5 | 46 | 33 | 451 | 3 | 10 |
| Devin Funchess** | – | 5.0 | – | – | – | – | – |
| Amari Rodgers** | – | -0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
**Did not play for the team in 2020.
strength of schedule:
Green Bay has the third most difficult schedule for quarterbacks in 2021, per PFF. The bye week is Week 13, and the most difficult matchups are Weeks 1, 3, 11, 12, and 17. Zach Wilson (NYJ) and Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) currently look like solid options if you want to stream based on QB matchup those weeks.
contract:
Rodgers signed a five-year, $134 mil contract extension in 2018. Green Bay has a potential out in 2022. In 2023, he has a cap hit of around $28 mil, with only around $3 mil guaranteed, which makes it easy for Green Bay to cut him. If he plays out his current contract, Rodgers will be an unrestricted free agent in 2024 (age 41).
summary:
Aaron Rodgers is an elite quarterback in the twilight of his career. Many people may be surprised that he is ranked in the top 5 for dynasty, but he is playing some of the best football of his legendary career right now and not showing any signs of slowing down. He is also playing behind one of the better offensive lines in the league.
He sat behind Brett Favre for three years before taking over as a starter and has been able to stay healthy for the most part, so the wear and tear on his body are theoretically pretty low. Combine this with what we have seen Tom Brady do at age 43, and there is hope that Rodgers can engineer at least a few more high-end seasons before his arm goes kaput.
Green Bay does have one of the more difficult schedules for QBS in 2021, but the biggest question mark around Rodgers is where he will play in 2021 or if he will play at all. It’s risky at this point, but I recommend Rodgers’s dynasty owners to hold onto him and squeeze every last bit of value out of him. The quarterback draft class in 2021 is strong and likely undervalued, so snag one of the 1st-round QBs at a value as your QB2 with future upside.
Expect Rodgers to compete for a Top 10 finish in 2021 no matter where he lands (assuming he doesn’t retire) and #1 overall if he stays with the Packers. He will likely fall out of the Top 5 in dynasty next year unless he posts elite numbers yet again.
On a side note, it’s fun to think about some potential landing spots; Rodgers to the Broncos leaves me intrigued and terrified as a KC fan.
